A Non-Sequential Probabilistic Production Simulation Method for Wind Energy Curtailment Evaluation Considering the Seasonal Heat Supply Constraints

High wind energy curtailment during winter and early spring in north China has drawn widespread concern in recent years, which, at source, results from the incongruous planning between wind power development and other generation expansion. However, the scenarios obtained by traditional planning method without considering the seasonal heat supply constraints are far from the actual operation stage. More difficulty lies in the lack of sequential data of wind power and load demand in planning stage. A nonsequential probabilistic production simulation model is proposed to evaluate the wind energy curtailment during the heat supply period, which only needs the input data of the cumulative probability function (CDF) and/or probability density function (PDF) of heat demand, electricity demand, and wind power. Then an algorithm based on the equivalent joint energy function and minimal power-heat ratio method is applied to solve the model. The simulations have been performed based on the actual data of a large wind power zone in north China. Comparing with the previous sequential simulation method, the precision of the proposed method is satisfactory and the calculation time is dramatically reduced.