The prognostic value of the Naples Prognostic Score in older individuals with heart failure: Based on the NHANES database

Abstract Objectives This project aimed to determine the prognostic significance of the Naples Prognostic Score (NPS) in all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in ageing individuals with HF. Methods The data of ageing individuals with HF from the NHANES database from 1999 to 2018 were used, with NPS as the independent variable, and all‐cause mortality and CVD mortality as the dependent variables. The value of NPS in predicting all‐cause mortality and CVD mortality in ageing individuals with HF was evaluated using weighted Kaplan–Meier (K‐M) survival analysis, the random survival forest (RSF) model and the Cox proportional hazards model. Results A total of 1012 participants were studied, whose average age was 72.84 ± 6.90 years. The K‐M curve demonstrated that the high‐NPS group of ageing individuals with HF had a lower survival rate than the low‐NPS group ( p < .05). After adjusting for all confounding variables, the high NPS group of ageing individuals with HF showed a significantly higher risk of all‐cause mortality (HR = 2.38 [1.50–3.79], p < .001) and CVD mortality (HR = 2.71 [1.11–6.64], p = .03). The RSF model demonstrated that, compared to other covariates, age and NPS were effective predictors of all‐cause mortality in ageing individuals with HF, while NPS was the most effective predictor of CVD mortality. Conclusion Naples Prognostic Score is a powerful indicator in predicting all‐cause mortality and CVD mortality in ageing individuals with HF.