Nomograms predict prognosis and hospitalization time using non-contrast CT and CT perfusion in patients with ischemic stroke

Background Stroke is a major disease with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Currently, there is no quantitative method to evaluate the short-term prognosis and length of hospitalization of patients. Purpose We aimed to develop nomograms as prognosis predictors based on imaging characteristics from non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) and CT perfusion (CTP) and clinical characteristics for predicting activity of daily living (ADL) and hospitalization time of patients with ischemic stroke. Materials and methods A total of 476 patients were enrolled in the study and divided into the training set ( n = 381) and testing set ( n = 95). Each of them owned NCCT and CTP images. We propose to extract imaging features representing as the Alberta stroke program early CT score (ASPECTS) values from NCCT, ischemic lesion volumes from CBF, and TMAX maps from CTP. Based on imaging features and clinical characteristics, we addressed two main issues: (1) predicting prognosis according to the Barthel index (BI)–binary logistic regression analysis was employed for feature selection, and the resulting nomogram was assessed in terms of discrimination capability, calibration, and clinical utility and (2) predicting the hospitalization time of patients–the Cox proportional hazard model was used for this purpose. After feature selection, another specific nomogram was established with calibration curves and time-dependent ROC curves for evaluation. Results In the task of predicting binary prognosis outcome, a nomogram was constructed with the area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.781–0.985), the accuracy of 0.853, and F1-scores of 0.909 in the testing set. We further tried to predict discharge BI into four classes. Similar performance was achieved as an AUC of 0.890 in the testing set. In the task of predicting hospitalization time, the Cox proportional hazard model was used. The concordance index of the model was 0.700 (SE = 0.019), and AUCs for predicting discharge at a specific week were higher than 0.80, which demonstrated the superior performance of the model. Conclusion The novel non-invasive NCCT- and CTP-based nomograms could predict short-term ADL and hospitalization time of patients with ischemic stroke, thus allowing a personalized clinical outcome prediction and showing great potential in improving clinical efficiency. Summary Combining NCCT- and CTP-based nomograms could accurately predict short-term outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke, including whose discharge BI and the length of hospital stay. Key Results Using a large dataset of 1,310 patients, we show a novel nomogram with a good performance in predicting discharge BI class of patients (AUCs > 0.850). The second nomogram owns an excellent ability to predict the length of hospital stay (AUCs > 0.800).