Posterior Probability Matters

Predicting user response probabilities is vital for ad ranking and bidding. We hope that predictive models can produce accurate probabilistic predictions that reflect true likelihoods. Calibration techniques aims to post-process model predictions to posterior probabilities. Field-level calibration -- which performs calibration w.r.t. to a specific field value -- is fine-grained and more practical. In this paper we propose a doubly-adaptive approach AdaCalib. It learns an isotonic function family to calibrate model predictions with the guidance of posterior statistics, and field-adaptive mechanisms are designed to ensure that the posterior is appropriate for the field value to be calibrated. Experiments verify that AdaCalib achieves significant improvement on calibration performance. It has been deployed online and beats previous approach.