Reexamining Shifting ROC Positions on the Sovereignty of the Ryukyus (1943–1972)

ABSTRACT This study reexamines the position and policies of the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) towards the Ryukyus in the period from the 1943 Cairo Conference to the 1971 Okinawa Reversion Agreement. In order to do so, this research focuses on international politics and domestic society to look for determinants of shifts in the ROC position. The results show that the ROC position towards the Ryukyus was shifted between passive and assertive positions, mainly depending on external factors. The study identifies four decisive factors defining ROC positions and policy: (1) the international status of the ROC government; (2) the ROC policy of military recovery of mainland China; (3) the focus in the international sphere on the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu/Diaoyutai) sovereignty dispute; and (4) Taiwan's domestic popular opinion. Finally, the paper identifies factors that help explain the shift in the ROC position towards the sovereignty of the Ryukyus. This paper has shown that ROC policy tended to be more assertive when the international status of the ROC was stable, when the policy of military recovery of the mainland was in question, when the international focus on the Senkakus (Diaoyu/Diaoyutai) sovereignty dispute was low, and when ROC domestic public opinion on the issue was strong. Conversely, under conditions of instability in the ROC's international status, strong support for the recovery of the mainland policy, spikes in the Senkakus (Diaoyu/Diaoyutai) controversy in the international sphere, and domestic weak public interest in the issue, policy tended to become passive.