The Economic and Political Legacy of Trump's First Term: Implications for the Second Presidency

ABSTRACT This comprehensive study investigates the profound and enduring economic consequences of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory on the global economy, as observed through 2024. Utilizing a sophisticated mixed‐methods approach, the research combines rigorous quantitative analysis of economic indicators with qualitative assessment of policy shifts, providing a nuanced understanding of long‐term changes in international trade relations, financial markets, and socioeconomic dynamics over the past 8 years. The study's key findings reveal that Trump's “America First” policies and protectionist measures, including tariffs on China and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement into the Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada, have had lasting effects on global trade patterns and supply chains. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that stock market volatility remains elevated by 10%–15% above pre‐Trump levels, while currencies in countries heavily dependent on United States (US) trade continue to be undervalued by 5%–7%. Foreign direct investment inflows to the US are observed to be 20% lower compared to 2016 levels, and domestic income inequality has increased by 15%. Furthermore, the research identifies significant shifts in global economic power dynamics, with emerging economies, particularly in Asia, gaining increased influence. The study notes a 25% increase in intra‐regional trade agreements outside of US influence, indicating a diversification of global economic partnerships. Additionally, the analysis reveals a 30% rise in investments in renewable energy sectors globally, partly in response to the US withdrawal from climate agreements during Trump's tenure. The study concludes that Trump's economic policies have induced structural changes in the global economy, accelerated the rebalancing of global economic powers, and fundamentally altered the nature of international economic relations. Related Articles Garrett Terence M. Sementelli Arthur J. 2023. “Revisiting the Policy Implications of COVID‐19, Asylum Seekers, and Migrants on the Mexico–U.S. Border: Creating (And Maintaining) States of Exception in the Trump and Biden Administrations.” Politics & Policy 51, 458 475. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12537 . Moynihan Donald. 2025. “Trump, Personalism, and US Administrative Capacity.” Politics & Policy 53, e70059. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70059 . Stockemer Daniel. 2025. “Is the US Moving Towards Autocracy? A Critical Assessment.” Politics & Policy 53, e70032. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70032 .