The underappreciated role of biotic factors in controlling the bloom ecology of potentially harmful microalgae in the Hudson-Raritan Bay

Despite widespread distribution of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and new and improved methods for detecting and quantifying them, no unifying ecological explanation has been found. Improved understanding depends upon local, ecological studies that include analysis of phytoplankton species data in relation to both abiotic and biotic parameters. Ecological network analysis was used to detect co-occurrence patterns among abiotic and biotic parameters in a long-term monitoring dataset (i.e., 2010–2021) from the eutrophic Hudson-Raritan Estuary (HRE) between the states of New York and New Jersey. The regular co-occurrence of potentially harmful bloom-forming species with companion species observed through microscopy was supported by the results of ecological network analysis, which showed that there were far more associations between HAB species and biotic parameters (∼95%) than abiotic parameters (∼5%). Temperature was the environmental variable that was most associated with HAB species throughout the estuary. The numerous network associations of HAB species with one another and with diatoms, dinoflagellates, and zooplankton highlight the complexity of planktonic food webs and interactions. Results also suggest that some taxa may play a central role in structuring the HRE plankton communities. These findings demonstrate that biotic associations play an underappreciated role in plankton structure and the value of examining the ecology of HAB species within the breadth of their biological communities. While network analysis does not fully explain and confirm complex associations among species, it does provide fresh insights and testable hypotheses to strengthen understanding and improve prediction.