The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target

China’s thermal power sector accounted for 45 % of total carbon emissions. Significant regional discrepancies exist between the plants to reach the carbon peaking target, which was overlooked in current research. This study investigates the regional discrepancies of the thermal power plants towards the carbon peaking target firstly. A thermal power plant database with ∼ 4500 power units in 298 cities to evaluate the emission reduction potential, expected carbon peaking period, and co-benefits. Results show that the carbon emission of the sector will experience a 7.2 % rise between 2019 and 2035, but the emission intensity decline by 27.6 g CO2/kWh. Nearly-one-third of the cities have risks not reaching the carbon peaking target before 2030, while most cities can reduce air pollutant emission. This study reveals the inconsistency between spatial carbon emissions and reduction potential of the thermal power plants and proposes several policy suggestions to the whole sector’s decarbonization.