Benefits of dietary transitions to aquatic foods for the environment and sustainable development goals: a case study in China under shared socioeconomic pathways

Food consumption patterns are significant drivers of environmental burdens, prompting increasing interest in dietary transitions. The possibility of adjusting animal-based dietary patterns with different consumption compositions, and the consequent large environmental implications considering the evolution of society and ecosystems in different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), however, have rarely been quantified. Furthermore, their connections with sustainable development goals (SDGs) require clearer elucidation. Taking into account the various eating habits among different groups of people in different regions, we systematically quantified the future consumption of animal-based foods with and without a dietary transition to the healthy pattern and their environmental footprints in China under SSPs 1-5 in 2030 and 2060. Historically, meat consumption in China, dominated by pork, exceeded 66.48% of the recommendations for a healthy dietary pattern. The shift in dietary patterns would greatly increase the demand for aquatic products in the future, reaching a maximum of 1445.61 × 104 t in SSP3 by 2060 (87.36%). The animal-based dietary transition to recommendations would embody environmental benefits by reducing the footprints of carbon, water, land, and nitrogen (by 3.80-10.45%, 5.84-14.46%, 15.83-23.18%, and 0.75-9.49%, respectively) in SSPs in China. A dietary transition would also benefit achieving SDGs from natural and socioeconomic aspects, like SDGs 2 (Zero hunger), 3 (Good health and well-being), 13 (Climate action), and 15 (Life on land). Dietary transitions to more aquatic products offer a promising pathway to sustainably nourish the growing population while limiting damage to the planet's integrity. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.