Decoding China's anthropogenic typical pollutant discharge patterns: Long-term dynamics and hotspot transitions driven by population, diet, and sanitation

Human activities have led to an alarming increase in pollution, resulting in widespread water contamination. A comprehensive understanding of the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic pollutant discharges and the escalating anthropogenic disturbances and environmental efforts is crucial for effective water quality management. Here we establish a Model for Estimating Anthropogenic pollutaNts diScharges (MEANS) and simulate the long-term dynamics of various types of anthropogenic discharges in China based on an unprecedented spatio-temporal dynamic parameter dataset. Our findings reveal that from 1980 to 2020, anthropogenic discharges exhibited an overall trend of initially increasing and subsequently decreasing, with the peak occurring around 2005. During this period, the dominant pollution sources in China shifted from urban to rural areas, thereby driving the transition of hotspot pollutants from nitrogen to phosphorus in the eastern regions. The most significant drivers of anthropogenic pollutant discharges gradually shifted from population size and dietary structure to wastewater treatment and agricultural factors. Furthermore, we observed that a significant portion of China's regions still exceed the safety thresholds for pollutant discharges, with excessive levels of total phosphorus (TP) being particularly severe. These findings highlight the need for flexible management strategies in the future to address specific pollution levels and hotspots in different regions. Our study underscores the importance of considering the complex interplay between anthropogenic disturbances, environmental efforts, and long-term anthropogenic pollutant discharges for effective water pollution control.