Establishment of prognostic model for invasive ductal carcinoma with distant metastasis within the triple-negative breast cancer: a SEER population-based study

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a complex and diverse group of malignancies. Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) is the predominant pathological subtype and is closely linked to the ominous potential for distant metastasis, a pivotal factor that significantly influences patient outcomes. In light of these considerations, the present study was conceived with the objective of developing a nomogram model. This model was designed to predict the prognosis observed in IDC with distant metastasis in TNBC. This was a retrospective study based on the SEER database. Data of 9739 IDC-TNBC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2020 were included in our study. Independent risk factors were screened by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses successively, which were used to develop a nomogram model predicting for prognosis. Cox multivariable analysis showed statistical significance in bone metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, and chemotherapy. Incorporating statistically significant variables, as well as clinically significant age, lung metastasis, and brain metastasis into the construction of the prediction model, the C-indexes of the training group and validation group were 0.702 (0.663–0.741) and 0.667 (0.600–0.734), respectively, while the calibration curves were all close to the ideal 45° reference line, and decision curve analysis curves show excellent net benefit in the predictive model. The prognostic prediction model developed in this study demonstrated enhanced predictive accuracy, enabling a more precise evaluation of mortality risks associated with IDC with distant metastasis in TNBC.