Assessment and optimization of shipping network resilience in the maritime silk road regions

Amid evolving geopolitical uncertainties, the Maritime Silk Road shipping network faces mounting systemic disruptions. This study proposes a macro-level resilience optimization framework that integrates complex network theory with resilience triangle theory to evaluate and enhance the resilience of Maritime Silk Road shipping network. The framework simulates four disruption types—random attacks (e.g., ship collisions), degree attacks (e.g., strikes at hub ports), strength attacks (e.g., route capacity constraints), and betweenness centrality attacks (e.g., blockages of critical corridors)—and assesses three recovery strategies: Degree Recovery, Betweenness Recovery, and Strength Recovery. Empirical findings reveal: (1) the strength recovery strategy consistently outperforms other strategies, especially under degree-based, strength-based, and random disruptions, by restoring high-throughput routes; (2) Long-distance, cross-regional connections—such as those between the Mediterranean and Northern Europe, or between East Asia and Southeast Asia—play a vital role in resilience enhancement, particularly under high economic budgets. These insights provide actionable guidance for policymakers and port authorities, emphasizing the need to incorporate resilience considerations into infrastructure planning, prioritize strategic hubs (e.g., Qingdao, Zhoushan, Bangkok, Hamburg), and balance investment feasibility with network resilience. The proposed framework is generalizable and can be extended to other global shipping networks to support resilience-oriented decision-making under systemic risks.