Explainable Lane Change Prediction for Near-Crash Scenarios Using Knowledge Graph Embeddings and Retrieval Augmented Generation

Lane-changing maneuvers, particularly those executed abruptly or in risky situations, are a significant cause of road traffic accidents. However, current research mainly focuses on predicting safe lane changes. Furthermore, existing accident datasets are often based on images only and lack comprehensive sensory data. In this work, we focus on predicting risky lane changes using the CARLA Risky-lane-change Anticipation in Simulated Highways (CRASH) dataset (our own collected dataset specifically for risky lane changes), and safe lane changes (using the HighD dataset). Then, we leverage Knowledge Graphs (KGs) and Bayesian inference to predict these maneuvers using linguistic contextual information, enhancing the model's interpretability and transparency. The model achieved a 91.5% f1-score with anticipation time extending to four seconds for risky lane changes, and a 90.0% f1-score for predicting safe lane changes with the same anticipation time. We validate our model by integrating it into a vehicle within the CARLA simulator in scenarios that involve risky lane changes. The model managed to anticipate sudden lane changes, thus providing automated vehicles with further time to plan and execute appropriate safe reactions. Finally, to enhance the explainability of our model, we utilize Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) to provide clear and natural language explanations for the given prediction.