Predicting the Scale of the Rural Road Network under the Strategy of Rural Revitalization in China

Since 2020, China has launched the strategy of rural revitalization to uplift the communities to prosperity by 2035. Rural roads have close connections with the economy, population, and rural development and act as the forerunner to transform the rural areas for the next generation. This stresses the importance of predicting the scale of the rural road network during the transport planning phase to deploy land, funds, and resources efficiently. The territorial vastness of China and heterogeneous factors influencing road development make it difficult to generate a good and relatively accurate prediction result. This paper uses four different prediction methods from different perspectives to cancel out errors and inaccuracies. The prediction result of approximately 5 million kilometers of rural roads in 2035 is achieved after direct comparison with the data obtained from provincial rural road planning. The result further bolstered the issuance of "Outline for the Development of Rural Roads in the Medium and Long Term" in China.