Toward the carbon neutrality: Forest carbon sinks and its spatial spillover effect in China

Developing forest carbon sinks is very important for China to achieve carbon neutrality. However, the forest resource distribution is spatially dependent, and forest carbon sinks cannot be sufficiently developed in an isolated pattern. Therefore, based on the spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2019, this study establishes a spatial econometric model and identifies transregional spillover effects of forest carbon sinks. The results show that the forest carbon sinks do have transregional spatial correlation characteristics. In addition to similar ecological environment factors in adjacent regions, the forest carbon sinks are closely related to the economic development structure and related policies. The proportion of the forest area and urbanization level are positively correlated with the forest carbon sinks in the region and neighboring regions, but the amount of deforestation and transport infrastructure level has a negative effect. Implementing carbon trading pilot programs in one region can promote the development of its local forest carbon sinks, but it has a negative spillover effect on the other regions. Furthermore, environmental regulation has a positive spillover effect on neighboring regions, whereas forestry production efficiency has a negative spillover effect. Some policy implications are proposed according to the results and China's realistic characteristics.