Optimizing Land Use for Carbon Neutrality: A Multi‐Objective Scenario Analysis in Gansu, Northwest China

ABSTRACT Land use policies significantly impact terrestrial ecosystem Carbon Storage (CS), requiring robust evaluations to support carbon neutrality goals. This study assesses the impact of land use policies on CS using an optimized Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC) modeling framework that integrates Mixed‐Cell Cellular Automata (MCCA) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Simulations were conducted under SSP126, SSP245, SSP585, and the Territorial Spatial Planning (SP) policy scenario. The results show higher CS levels in the southeastern compared to the northwest, with Woodlands providing the greatest CS and Built‐up areas the least. From 2000 to 2020, land conversion from Cropland and Built‐up areas to Woodland and Grassland increased CS by 9.93 × 10 7 t. By 2060, the SP scenario achieved the highest total CS (4.14 × 10 9 t) due to a 20.76% increase in Woodland and 6.77% in Grassland, adding 1.74 × 10 8 t. SSP126 and SSP245 similarly boosted CS (4.063 × 10 9 t and 4.06 × 10 9 t) through Woodland expansions of 25.71% and 27%. SSP585, with a 47.74% Cropland increase, projected the lowest CS (3.96 × 10 9 t) and a 6.42 × 10 6 t net loss. High‐carbon sink areas were mainly located in Qi‐lien Mountain Glacier and Water Source Conservation (QME), “Two Rivers and One Water” watershed of the Upper Yangtze River (YRE). Protecting these critical areas is essential for enhancing ecological resilience and advancing long‐term carbon neutrality.