Machine learning-based risk prediction of hypoxemia for outpatients undergoing sedation colonoscopy: a practical clinical tool

OBJECTIVES: Hypoxemia as a common complication in colonoscopy under sedation and may result in serious consequences. Unfortunately, a hypoxemia prediction model for outpatient colonoscopy has not been developed. Consequently, the objective of our study was to develop a practical and accurate model to predict the risk of hypoxemia in outpatient colonoscopy under sedation. METHODS: In this study, we included patients who received colonoscopy with anesthesia in Nanjing First Hospital from July to September 2021. Risk factors were selected through the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Prediction models based on logistic regression (LR), random forest classifier (RFC), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and stacking classifier (SCLF) model were implemented and assessed by standard metrics such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity and specificity. Then choose the best model to develop an online tool for clinical use. RESULTS: We ultimately included 839 patients. After LASSO, body mass index (BMI) (coefficient = 0.36), obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) (coefficient = 1.32), basal oxygen saturation (coefficient = -0.14), and remifentanil dosage (coefficient = 0.04) were independent risk factors for hypoxemia. The XGBoost model with an AUROC of 0.913 showed the best performance among the five models. CONCLUSION: Our study selected the XGBoost as the first model especially for colonoscopy, with over 95% accuracy and excellent specificity. The XGBoost includes four variables that can be quickly obtained. Moreover, an online prediction practical tool has been provided, which helps screen high-risk outpatients with hypoxemia swiftly and conveniently.