Evaluating the impacts of socio-economic factors on regional grain virtual water flows in China using a structural equation modeling approach

Changes in the patterns of regional economic and social development will affect regional agricultural and industrial structures, thereby affecting grain cultivation patterns. Imbalances between the grain supply and demand will trigger interregional grain flow. Grain is a water-intensive product, and virtual water embedded in grain products flows between regions, which will affect the utilization and distribution of regional water resources. This study evaluated the impacts of socio-economic factors on regional grain virtual water flows by using the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM). Results show that grain production centers in China are being transferred to the northern regions due to the evolution of economic patterns over the past 30 years. Driven by the imbalance between the regional grain supply and demand, the virtual water flow patterns of grain shows a tendency to flow from the northern and western provinces to the southern and eastern provinces. Results of structural equation modeling show that there is a significant causal structure between socio-economic factors and grain virtual water flows. The study indicates that the regional socio-economic pattern and its evolution will affect the grain virtual flow patterns. Consequently, virtual water flows will exert great pressure on water resources in the virtual water export areas, and the expansion of the virtual water export will increase the difficulty of regional water resources systems in supporting regional social and economic sustainable development and grain production, thus posing a potential challenge to China's water resources and grain security.