Spatio-temporal evolution scenarios and the coupling analysis of ecosystem services with land use change in China

Ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand are affected by changes in land use and the supply of specific ecosystem services for human consumption, respectively. Future spatio-temporal dynamics and their coupling relations with land use in China have not been well analysed. In this study, based on future land use scenarios of Li's database, ES supply, demand and balance (supply minus demand) were revealed utilizing land use and land cover (LULC) matrix model in China in 2010, 2050 and 2100. The results showed that ES supply, demand and balance had great spatial and temporal variations under different scenarios at national and provincial scales. Higher population and higher urban expansion scenarios will lead to a significant decreasing in the balance values of different categories and total ESs in most provinces. The ecological sensitivity index was calculated to indicate the impact of land use intensity on ecosystem services. The results showed that the sensitivity levels in approximately 90% of provinces were low for all the scenarios, as only Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Liaoning in 2050 and Gansu in 2100 were extremely sensitive to changes in supply, while only provinces in the central-eastern regions were sensitive with obvious differences from the demand. The coupling coordination analysis between land use intensity and ES balance was applied to identify the provinces with low-level coordination in land use and ES management. The results showed that the coordination change in most provinces remained stable under four scenarios. However, some provinces displayed an improving trend from low to moderate coordination or from moderate to high coordination and a degrading trend from moderate to low coordination or from high to moderate coordination from 2010 to 2100. This study contributes to exploring the effect of land use on ecosystem service evolution, thereby providing credible guidance for future land and ES management.