Study on the evolution and prediction of habitat quality in Urumqi, Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China, based on the InVEST ‐ PLUS model

Abstract Facing increasing ecological pressures driven by urbanization in the oasis cities of China's arid northwest, accurately assessing and predicting habitat quality dynamics is essential for sustainable regional development. This study focuses on Urumqi, a typical oasis city in the arid region of northwest China. It integrates the InVEST model, the PLUS model, and the geographical detector to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving forces of habitat quality in Urumqi from 2000 to 2020, and to forecast habitat quality changes under different scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that during the study period, the overall habitat quality in Urumqi showed a degrading trend. The area of high‐quality habitat decreased from 4847.54 to 4255.29 km 2 , with significant spatial variation characterized by a “high in the south, low in the north, and degradation in the center” pattern. Geographical detector analysis revealed that the spatial differentiation of habitat quality is jointly influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors, with significant two‐factor enhancement interactions between them. Multi‐scenario simulations indicate that the ecological protection scenario can alleviate habitat degradation to some extent; however, under all scenarios, the area of high‐quality habitat continues to decline while low‐quality habitat area generally increases. In particular, under the urban development scenario, the area of poor‐quality habitat increased from 443.19 in 2020 to 541.29 km 2 in 2030. This further indicates that the regional ecosystem as a whole is still under considerable degradation pressure that cannot be ignored.