Burden and Future Trends of Atopic Dermatitis in the Pediatric Population Aged 19 Years or Younger in 5 East Asian Countries, 1990–2040: A Longitudinal Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Background : Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a pressing pediatric challenge with a profound disease burden. Accurate burden estimation is crucial for developing effective public health and clinical responses. Objective : To assess the temporal trends and future burden of AD in children and adolescents aged 19 years or younger across 5 East Asian countries. Methods : Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, this study analyzed the burden of AD—measured by age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year rates—in Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia, and China. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contributions of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. Projections to 2040 were generated using Bayesian age–period–cohort models. Results : In 2023, East Asian children and adolescents exhibited substantial rates of AD, particularly among females. China experienced the most severe and rapidly worsening burden within the region. Although the disease burden in East Asia has declined, population aging acted as the dominant protective factor, counterbalancing increases associated with population growth and epidemiological changes. By 2040, this burden is expected to decline across all nations except Mongolia, which is forecasted to see a continued increase. Conclusions: The significant disparities in pediatric and adolescent AD burden within East Asia necessitate early, stratified, and multidisciplinary population health action.