COVID-19 and sepsis-related excess mortality in the US during the first three years: A national-wide time series study

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic's global impact has been devastating, causing millions of deaths. Our study investigates excess sepsis-related mortality trends over three years during the pandemic. Using CDC's National Vital Statistics System data from January 2018 to March 2023, we projected sepsis-related deaths during the pandemic using a Poisson log-linear regression model. We compared observed versus predicted deaths and analyzed temporal trends by demographics and regions. Among the 753,160 deaths documented between March 2020 and March 2023, a significant downward trend was noted in sepsis-related mortality rates from March 2022 to March 2023, coinciding with the surge of the Omicron variant. The excess mortality rates were 170.6 per million persons (95% CI: 168.2-172.6), 167.5 per million persons (95% CI: 163.6-170.9), and 73.3 per million persons (95% CI: 69.4-76.6) in the first, second, and third years, respectively. Increased sepsis-related mortality was observed across all age subgroups, with the greatest increase noted in those aged 85 years and above compared to middle- and young-aged decedents. Disparities were also observed across racial/ethnic, sex/gender subgroups, and geographic regions. This study highlights the effectiveness of current policies and prevention measures in response to the long-term circulating of SARS-CoV-2 in the community.