Impacts of greenhouse gas neutrality strategies on gas infrastructure and costs: implications from case studies based on French and German GHG-neutral scenarios

The European Union's target to reach greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 calls for a sharp decrease in the consumption of natural gas. This study assesses impacts of greenhouse gas neutrality on the gas system, taking France and Germany as two case studies which illustrate a wide range of potential developments within the European Union. Based on a review of French and German GHG-neutral scenarios, it explores impacts on gas infrastructure and estimates the changes in end-user methane price considering a business-as-usual and an optimised infrastructure pathway. Our results show that gas supply and demand radically change by mid-century across various scenarios. Moreover, the analysis suggests that deep transformations of the gas infrastructure are required and that according to the existing pricing mechanisms the end-user price of methane will increase, driven by the switch to low-carbon gases and intensified by infrastructure costs.