Future Change in Extratropical Cyclones Associated with Change in the Upper Troposphere

Abstract Future changes in Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm activity as a consequence of global warming are investigated using the AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with horizontal grid sizes of 60 and 20 km. A future (2075–99) climate experiment, in which the change in sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel ensemble mean is added to observed SST, is compared with a present-day (1979–2003) climate experiment. Results of three-member simulations using the 60-km model are presented. A single simulation using the 20-km model is also presented, showing that similar results are obtained. In the future climate experiment, the number of intense cyclones (sea level pressure below 980 hPa) shows a significant increase whereas the number of total cyclones shows a significant decrease, similar to the results obtained from the CMIP3 models themselves. The increase in intense cyclones is seen on the polar side and downstream side of Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks. At the same time, the growth rate of the cyclones increases in areas upstream of these regions. For the regions with the increasing growth rate, a high correlation is seen between the growth rate of the surface cyclones and upper-tropospheric zonal wind at a monthly-mean time scale. Months of high cyclone growth rate with strong zonal wind in these regions become more frequent, and months of low cyclone growth rate with weak zonal wind become less frequent. One of the possibilities that can explain this relationship is changes in the wave-breaking pattern, that is, a decrease in wave breakings in areas of cyclonic shear and an increase in wave breakings in areas of anticyclonic shear. Associated with these changes, rapid cyclone developments are more commonly seen, and weak, long-lived cyclones become less frequent.