Early warning of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients by three-phase CT-based deep learning radiomics model: a retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

Background: The diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often experiences latency, ultimately leading to unfavorable patient outcomes due to delayed therapeutic interventions. Our study is designed to develop and validate a model that employs triple-phase computerized tomography (CT)-based deep learning radiomics and clinical variables for early warning of HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Methods: We studied 1858 patients with cirrhosis primarily from the PreCar cohort (NCT03588442) between June 2018 and January 2020 at 11 centres, and collected triple-phase CT images and laboratory results 3-12 months prior to HCC diagnosis or non-HCC final follow-up. Using radiomics and deep learning techniques, early warning model was developed in the discovery cohort (n = 924), and then validated in an internal validation cohort (n = 231), and an external validation cohort from 10 external centres (n = 703). Findings: We developed a hybrid model, named ALARM model, which integrates deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, enabling early warning of the majority of HCC cases. The ALARM model effectively predicted short-term HCC development in cirrhotic patients with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.929 (95% confidence interval 0.918-0.941) in the discovery cohort, 0.902 (0.818-0.987) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.918 (0.898-0.961) in the external validation cohort. By applying optimal thresholds of 0.21 and 0.65, the high-risk (n = 221, 11.9%) and medium-risk (n = 433, 23.3%) groups, which covered 94.4% (84/89) of the patients who developed HCC, had significantly higher rates of HCC occurrence compared to the low-risk group (n = 1204, 64.8%) (24.3% vs 6.4% vs 0.42%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, ALARM also demonstrated consistent performance in subgroup analysis. Interpretation: The novel ALARM model, based on deep learning radiomics with clinical variables, provides reliable estimates of short-term HCC development for cirrhotic patients, and may have the potential to improve the precision in clinical decision-making and early initiation of HCC treatments. Funding: This work was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC2303600, 2022YFC2304800), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82170610), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2023A1515011211).