Carbon pricing and household welfare: evidence from Uganda

Abstract Policymakers frequently voice concerns that carbon pricing could impair economic development in the short run, especially in low-income countries such as Uganda. Using a consumer demand system for energy and food items, we assess how households’ welfare, and demand for food and energy, would respond to a carbon price of USD40/tCO2. We find welfare losses of 0.2–12 per cent of household expenditure on food and fuel, due to the carbon price. Average demand for electricity and kerosene decline by 11 and 20 per cent respectively, while firewood demand rises by 10 per cent on average. We observe shifts within food consumption baskets, with declines in the demand for meat & fish, and vegetables, alongside an increase in cereal consumption. Household nutrition is adversely impacted, with declines in protein and micronutrient intake across the population. Complementary social protection policies such as cash transfers are therefore required to ease adverse effects on economic development in Uganda.