Can agricultural low-carbon development benefit from urbanization？-Empirical evidence from China's new-type urbanization pilot policy

Advancing agricultural low-carbon development (ALCD) holds substantial real-world significance for the low-carbon sustainable growth of the global economy. Traditional urbanization, focusing on the “one-way” concentration of elements in cities and pursuing urban expansion's scale and speed, poses a threat to ALCD. In contrast, new-type urbanization (NTU), which emphasizes a “two-way” concentration of elements in both rural and urban areas, provides an approach to address this issue. Nevertheless, no research has investigated the relationship between NTU, particularly the new-type urbanization pilot policy (NTUPP), and ALCD. To fill this void, this research employs panel data from 210 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2019, using a difference-in-differences (DID) model to investigate the impact and mechanisms of NTUPP on ALCD for the first time. The study reveals: (1) NTUPP significantly boosts the level of ALCD, with cities that have implemented NTUPP showing an average enhancement of 19.13% in ALCD levels compared to those without NTUPP. (2) NTUPP chiefly fosters ALCD by improving agricultural technological efficiency rather than advancing technological progress. (3) Relative to smaller cities, northern cities, eastern cities, resource-based cities, major grain-producing areas, cities with substantial government intervention, and cities with lower levels of financial development, NTUPP is more efficacious in enhancing ALCD in larger cities, southern cities, central and western cities, non-resource-based cities, non-major grain-producing areas, cities with minimal government intervention, and cities with advanced financial development. (4) NTUPP advances ALCD in local cities and boosts ALCD in neighboring cities via spatial spillover effects. This research aids the Chinese government in clarifying the implementation effects of the new-type urbanization pilot policy based on its findings, offering theoretical underpinnings and practical evidence for government departments in shaping and assessing the policy, and providing insights and evidence for other nations worldwide to advance sustainable agricultural development via enhanced urbanization efforts.