A circular economy approach for the global lithium-ion battery supply chain

The lithium-ion battery supply chain is critical for global decarbonization, yet its geographically dispersed production stages pose significant challenges for carbon emission management. Here, we develop a lithium cycle computable general equilibrium model (LCCGE) that integrates a lifecycle assessment with regional economic dynamics to systematically evaluate carbon emissions and circular economy strategies across the global supply chain. Our analysis reveals that while downstream cathode production generates 42.1% of the economic value with only 34.8% of the emissions, upstream mining contributes merely 18.5% of the value but accounts for 38.6% of the total emissions (217.08 Mt CO₂-eq). Through a comprehensive scenario analysis of circular economy pathways, we demonstrate that consumer-oriented recycling strategies achieve optimal emission intensity reduction (16.30% by 2060), which is particularly effective in East Asian economies. Our proposed technology-oriented cross-regional circular economy framework (J020-R222) yields the highest emission reduction potential (32.98% globally), with manufacturing powerhouses demonstrating exceptional capabilities (U.S. 39.53%, EU 37.10%, China 34.46%). By integrating environmental, technological, and trade strategies in a circular economy context, these findings provide critical insights for developing regionally tailored yet globally coordinated decarbonization pathways while establishing a novel methodological framework for analysing complex supply chain sustainability through circular economy approaches.