Ecological zone construction and multi-scenario simulation in Western China combining landscape ecological risk and ecosystem service value

The disparity between eastern and western China is significant, with considerable imbalances in city development. Ecological zoning can promote the comprehensive and coordinated urbanization of China and provide valuable planning references for the future development of western cities. This study focused on Hohhot, a typical western city, to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of its ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER) from 2000 to 2020 using value-equivalence and landscape ecology methods. The Z-score method was employed to delineate ecological zones, and the PLUS model was used to predict the ecological zoning patterns under four scenarios for 2040. The study's findings revealed the following: (1) During the three periods from 2000 to 2020, Hohhot City was mainly characterized by the dominance of very low risk, low risk, and medium risk ecological levels, The areas of these levels accounted for 94.11%, 91.11%, and 90.95% of the city's total area respectively. The overall variation in ESV was minimal, with grassland, water area, forests, and arable lands constituting the primary contributors to ESV. (2) Across the four future scenarios, LER and ESV exhibited divergent trends. Under the urban development scenario, high risk areas increased the most (4.14%), while in the arable land protection scenario, very low risk areas were smallest, and low risk areas were largest. Implementing reasonable urban planning policies can enhance ESV, with notable increases in low value, medium value, and higher value areas under ecological protection, natural development, and arable land protection scenarios. (3) Combining ESV and LER dimensions, Hohhot was categorized into four ecological zones: ecological restoration reserve (Zone I), ecological rich reserve (zone II), ecological balanced protected areas (Zone III), and ecological challenge reserve (Zone IV). Differentiated management strategies were proposed for each zone. This study integrated LER and ESV for ecological zoning, offering a novel perspective for understanding ecological security. By extending temporal scales using the PLUS model, it predicted the spatial patterns of ecological zones under four scenarios, achieving dynamic ecological zoning. The findings enriched ecological zoning methodologies and provided a scientific basis for dynamic monitoring and management of ecological security.