The Risks of Cardiovascular Disease Following Weight Change in Adults With Diabetes: A Cohort Study and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT: Weight management is recognized as critical in reducing cardio-metabolic risk factors for adults with diabetes, but the effects of weight change on cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate 18-month weight change and subsequent risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications in established individuals with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: This study consisted of a cohort study and a meta-analysis. In the cohort study, weight change over 18 months was divided into: gain ≥5%, gain 1%-5%, stable (-1%-1%), loss 1%-5%, and loss ≥5%. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We then used random-effect models to pool the results combing our study with other relevant studies. RESULTS: In the cohort study, 8920 participants with valid weight measurements were included. Compared with patients with stable weight, higher risks were seen in those with weight change for total vascular complications (gain ≥5%: HR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.10-1.85; gain 1-5%: HR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.02-2.03; loss ≥5%: HR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.20-2.08), macrovascular complications (gain ≥5%: HR=1.84, 95% CI: 1.16-2.91; loss 1-5%: HR=1.91, 95% CI: 1.06-3.43; loss ≥5%: HR=2.18, 95% CI: 1.36-3.49) and microvascular complications (loss ≥5%: HR=1.48, 95% CI: 1.06-2.06). Meta-analysis also showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Weight gain and loss over 18 months among patients with type 2 diabetes, especially weight change ≥5%, may be a warning sign of adverse cardiovascular outcomes.