The Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia score: A predictive model for bronchopulmonary dysplasia or death in high‐risk preterm infants

Abstract Aim Progressive respiratory deterioration in infants at high risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is associated with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) exposure. This study aimed to design an early predictive model for BPD or death in preterm infants using early echocardiographic markers and clinical data. Methods Infants born with gestational age (GA) ≤ 29 weeks and/or birth weight (BW) < 1500 g at Cork University Maternity Hospital, Ireland were retrospectively evaluated. Those with echocardiography performed between 36 h and 7 days of life were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were pulmonary hypertension and major congenital anomalies. The primary outcome was a composite of BPD and death before discharge. Results The study included 99 infants. A predictive model for the primary outcome was developed, which included three variables (BW, Respiratory Severity Score and flow pattern across the PDA), and yielding an area under the curve of 0.98 (95% CI 0.96–1.00, p < 0.001). Higher scores were predictive of the primary outcome. A cut‐off of −1.0 had positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 98%, and sensitivity and specificity of 98% and 88%, respectively. Conclusion Our prediction model is an accessible bedside tool that predicts BPD or death in premature infants.