A Model for Translating MAC (Military Airlift Command) Flying Hours into Airlift Capability

Abstract : MAC maintains a global airlift system to support both wartime and peacetime passenger and cargo airlift requirements for the Department of Defense. Users of the global airlift system submit quarterly cargo requirement forecasts for each fiscal year which are then matched against MAC flying hours to determine if there is a surplus or deficit of airlift capability. If there is a deficit, MAC purchases commercial airlift to move the excess volume. The purpose of this research was to develop, test, and validate a model that will accurately translate aircraft flying hours into airlift capability. HQ MAC officials were concerned that airlift capability may not be accurately determined for each new fiscal year. Airlift capability was determined for each new fiscal year by choosing a busy month in the prior fiscal year and using that month as an average month of capability for the year. The proposed model was compared to the current methodology to determine which was the better technique. Using the absolute percentage error as a basis for comparison, it was found that, overall, the model was more accurate than the current methodology. The model was dramatically more accurate in the Pacific Region, but was slightly less accurate in the Atlantic Region. The Model also generated additional information that would allow MAC to more effectively purchase long-term commercial airlift. Using BASIC programming language, a computer program of the model was written to allow for routine use by MAC personnel. Keywords: Computer program listings. Theses.