Association between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index and future cardiovascular disease risk in a population with Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic syndrome stage 0–3: a nationwide prospective cohort study

Abstract Background The American Heart Association (AHA) has recently introduced the concept of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome, which is the result of an increasing emphasis on the interplay of metabolic, renal and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Furthermore, there is substantial evidence of a correlation between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI ) and CVD as an assessment of insulin resistance (IR). However, it remains unknown whether this correlation exists in population with CKM syndrome. Methods All data for this study were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The exposure was the participants’ TyG-BMI at baseline, which was calculated using a combination of triglycerides (TG), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and body mass index (BMI). The primary outcome was CVD, which were determined by the use of a standardised questionnaire during follow-up. To examine the relationship between TyG-BMI and CVD incidence in population with CKM syndrome, both Cox regression analyses and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression analyses were performed. Results A total of 7376 participants were included in the final analysis. Of these, 1139, 1515, 1839, and 2883 were in CKM syndrome stages 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively, at baseline. The gender distribution was 52.62% female, and the mean age was 59.17 ± 9.28 (years). The results of the fully adjusted COX regression analyses indicated that there was a 6.5% increase in the risk of developing CVD for each 10-unit increase in TyG-BMI,95% confidence interval (CI):1.041–1.090. The RCS regression analyses demonstrated a positive linear association between TyG-BMI and the incidence of CVD in the CKM syndrome population (P for overall < 0.001, P for nonlinear = 0.355). Conclusions This cohort study demonstrated a positive linear association between TyG-BMI index and increased CVD incidence in a population with CKM syndrome stage 0–3. This finding suggests that enhanced assessment of TyG-BMI index may provide a more convenient and effective tool for individuals at risk for CVD in CKM syndrome stage 0–3.