Prevalence and 10-Year Risk of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Central China Using Estimates From the 1 Million Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a common and fatal type of stroke, especially in central China. However, recent epidemiologic data are scarce. The study aimed to investigate the latest prevalence of ICH in central China and assess the risk of ICH in the next 10 years based on the Resident Health Records (RHR) data. METHODS: First, this cross-sectional study was based on a large-scale face-to-face investigation of ICH, which was launched on residents aged 20 years or older from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, and estimated the prevalence of ICH in Hunan, a representative province in central China. Then, based on the RHR database, we assessed the ICH risk, population attributable fraction (PAF), and effects of ICH prevention under different risk factor control scenarios over the next decade by the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB)-cardiovascular disease (CVD) model. RESULTS: In 2021, 1.78 million participants enrolled in the investigation (mean age = 50.1 years; 51% male). The age-standardized prevalence rate of ICH was 159.2 (95% CI 153.7-164.9) per 100,000. The prevalence rate of ICH in men was 193.6 (95% CI 185.2-202.5) per 100,000, while in women was 124.0 (95% CI 117.1-131.3) per 100,000, and it increased with age. Spatial aggregation was observed, with the peak prevalence rate of ICH at 327.3 (95% CI 293.1-365.5) per 100,000 in Zhuzhou, followed by Changsha was 215.8 (95% CI 190.6-243.9) per 100,000, while Shaoyang had the lowest rate was 62.8 (95% CI 51.2-77.1) per 100,000. For the assessment of 10-year ICH risk, we included a total of 8.36 million participants aged 30-79 with the RHR database into the CKB-CVD model. We found that there will be 354,146 cases (ICH risk: 4.2%) of ICH among the participants in the next decade. Controlling hypertension showed the highest potential for ICH prevention, with a PAF of 8.6%. By controlling hypertension, smoking, waist circumference, and diabetes, 56,673 ICH cases (PAF 19.1%) can be avoided in the next decade. DISCUSSION: The ICH prevalence in central China remained high. Strict blood pressure control could significantly reduce the risk of ICH in the next 10 years. It is important to continually improve ICH prevention strategies in the general population.