Connectivity-Oriented Ecological Security Pattern Construction Through Multi-Scenario Simulation Approach: A Case Study of Hefei City, China

Rapid urbanization has brought severe threats to regional ecological security. Most research regards ecological security pattern (ESP) focuses on the current situation and ignores future land use and land cover (LULC) impacts. Therefore, this study proposed an ESP construction framework that integrates multi-scenario patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) with ecosystem service value (ESV) evaluation based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Taking Hefei City as a case study, this study predicts land use types under the natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and economic development scenario (EDS) in 2030. Afterwards, ecological sources are identified by selecting four types of ecosystem services. Ecological corridors and nodes are identified by combining circuit theory and ecological resistance surfaces. The ESP is constructed based on a generic, landscape-scale connectivity-oriented perspective. The results showed that: (1) the LULC in Hefei City underwent significant changes between 2000 and 2020. The main manifestations are the reduction in cropland and increase in construction land. The expansion of construction land under EDS is the most significant. (2) The spatial distribution patterns of ESV for 2020 and three scenarios in 2030 exhibit marked heterogeneity. (3) According to the simulated scenarios in 2030, ecological corridors form a structure that is sparser in the central region and denser in the southern region; ecological pinch points are predominantly located within the Zipeng Mountain and the region situated to the south of Chaohu; ecological barrier points are mainly distributed at the edge of the built-up area and in the middle of long-distance ecological corridors. The ecological network structure under EPS has been expanded and reinforced. (4) Hefei City exhibits an ESP of “Four zones, Three screens, One network, Multiple nodes” as a whole, indicating an ecological security pattern with relatively higher potential ecological connectivity at the city scale. This study aims to provide scientific support for the development of Hefei City in society, economy and ecological security.