The road forward to incorporate seawater microbes in predictive reef monitoring

Abstract Marine bacterioplankton underpin the health and function of coral reefs and respond in a rapid and sensitive manner to environmental changes that affect reef ecosystem stability. Numerous meta-omics surveys over recent years have documented persistent associations of opportunistic seawater microbial taxa, and their associated functions, with metrics of environmental stress and poor reef health (e.g. elevated temperature, nutrient loads and macroalgae cover). Through positive feedback mechanisms, disturbance-triggered heterotrophic activity of seawater microbes is hypothesised to drive keystone benthic organisms towards the limit of their resilience and translate into shifts in biogeochemical cycles which influence marine food webs, ultimately affecting entire reef ecosystems. However, despite nearly two decades of work in this space, a major limitation to using seawater microbes in reef monitoring is a lack of a unified and focused approach that would move beyond the indicator discovery phase and towards the development of rapid microbial indicator assays for (near) real-time reef management and decision-making. By reviewing the current state of knowledge, we provide a comprehensive framework (defined as five phases of research and innovation) to catalyse a shift from fundamental to applied research, allowing us to move from descriptive to predictive reef monitoring, and from reactive to proactive reef management.