DVCAE: Semi-Supervised Dual Variational Cascade Autoencoders for Information Popularity Prediction

Predicting information popularity in social networks has become a central focus of network analysis. While recent advancements have been made, most existing approaches rely solely on the final cascade size as the primary supervision signal for model optimization. This narrow focus limits the model generalization ability, particularly when faced with highly heterogeneous cascades. Additionally, in real-world scenarios, obtaining detailed social relationships is challenging, complicating effective structural feature learning. To address these issues, this paper proposes a semi-supervised model called Dual Variational Cascade AutoEncoders (DVCAE), which leverages parallel structural and temporal variational autoencoders for enhanced feature learning and popularity prediction. The model first aggregates multiple cascades into a global interaction graph, enabling structural information sharing across cascades. Then, it applies sparse matrix factorization-based graph embedding and graph filtering techniques on global and local cascade graphs respectively, generating initial node embeddings that are insensitive to topological perturbations. After that, two parallel variational autoencoders are designed to generate hidden representations for structural and temporal features respectively, with two self-supervised reconstruction losses integrated into the prediction loss to enrich supervision signals. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that DVCAE outperforms state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy.