Research on Hydrological Risk Factors of Water Supply of the Source of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

This paper regards the Danjiangkou Reservoir,the source of the Middle Route Project for the South to North Water Transfer,as the research area.It analyzes the main factor of hydrological risk about water supply.Based on the simulation of the stream flows of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in different climate scenes by using the SWAT model,it analyzes the effects of the climate and land-use changes to the stream flows of the Reservoir.The results show that climate change is the most important risk factor; Second,the effects produced by the water consumption and other water diversion projects of the upper reaches are also very obvious,which can be controlled by human;the changes of land-use can hardly influence the hydrology water risk.