A diagnostic framework for assessing land-use change impacts on landscape pattern and character – A case-study from the Douro region, Portugal

Mediterranean rural landscapes are experiencing multiple changes which imperil the preservation of landscape pattern and character. Despite the abundance of land-use change studies, most approaches do not evaluate the impact of land-use change on landscape character. This study presents a diagnostic framework focused on two main phases: i) the quantification of landscape pattern and analysis of the significant transition processes that occur, and ii) a qualitative appraisal of land-use transitions, classifying them based on whether the landscape character is maintained, neglected, enhancing, or diverging. Four land-use maps from 1995, 2007, 2010 and 2015 covering the Douro region (northeastern Portugal) were analyzed. This region has heterogeneous landscape characters and includes areas classified for their natural and cultural values. Most of the change was compatible with the landscape character (87%), though there was a reduction in heterogeneous agriculture, bare land, and pastureland associated with agricultural abandonment. Landscape patches were more complex and less isolated until 2007, but there has been an opposite trend in recent years. The main change processes are afforestation, loss of forests, and vineyard expansion. The Douro region shows similar trends to other Mediterranean areas, namely the polarization of human influence, driven mainly by depopulation, agricultural policies and wildfires. In conclusion, this diagnostic framework quantified and spatialized the main trends, constituting the first step to analyzing a vast and heterogeneous territory. This study emphasizes the importance of monitoring this landscape in the future to make better-informed decisions regarding landscape planning and maintenance to address challenges such as climate change and depopulation.