Denosumab and incidence of type 2 diabetes among adults with osteoporosis: population based cohort study

Abstract Objective To estimate the effect of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates on reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes in adults with osteoporosis. Design Population based study involving emulation of a randomized target trial using electronic health records. Setting IQVIA Medical Research Data primary care database in the United Kingdom, 1995-2021. Participants Adults aged 45 years or older who used denosumab or an oral bisphosphonate for osteoporosis. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes, as defined by diagnostic codes. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, comparing denosumab with oral bisphosphonates using an as treated approach. Results 4301 new users of denosumab were matched on propensity score to 21 038 users of an oral bisphosphonate and followed for a mean of 2.2 years. The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in denosumab users was 5.7 (95% confidence interval 4.3 to 7.3) per 1000 person years and in oral bisphosphonate users was 8.3 (7.4 to 9.2) per 1000 person years. Initiation of denosumab was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.52 to 0.89). Participants with prediabetes appeared to benefit more from denosumab compared with an oral bisphosphonate (hazard ratio 0.54, 0.35 to 0.82), as did those with a body mass index ≥30 (0.65, 0.40 to 1.06). Conclusions In this population based study, denosumab use was associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with oral bisphosphonate use in adults with osteoporosis. This study provides evidence at a population level that denosumab may have added benefits for glucose metabolism compared with oral bisphosphonates.