Do green consumption behaviors contribute to decoupling economic growth from carbon emission? A comparative study on China, the United States, the European Union, and India

Predicting carbon emissions and examining their decoupling from economic growth are important global issues. This study constructs a Tapio decoupling index model based on green consumption behaviors, focusing on China, the United States, the European Union, and India as research subjects, and forecasts carbon emissions and their potential decoupling from economic growth in these countries and regions from 2023 to 2050 through scenario analysis. This research shows the following. (1) Green consumption behaviors significantly influence carbon decoupling in China, the United States, the European Union, and India, particularly under low- and medium-speed development scenarios. They contribute positively to achieving a strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth. (2) The growth rates of carbon emissions in China and India are significantly slower under the low- and medium-speed development scenarios than under the high-speed scenarios. Meanwhile, the United States and European Union exhibit different carbon emission characteristics under various development scenarios, but with an overall declining trend. (3) The empirical results, based on historical data, demonstrate that green consumption behaviors in China and India significantly inhibit carbon emissions driven by population growth, whereas they do not have a significant impact in the United States and the European Union. This study provides references for the formulation of regional policies and national strategies aimed at achieving dual carbon goals.