Air quality and heath co-benefits of low carbon transition policies in electricity system: the case of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

Abstract Low carbon transition strategies of power plants are crucial to meet China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ targets. While the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the ‘capital economic circles’ of China, is suffering from serious air pollution, air quality co-benefits of low carbon transition policies in electricity system in BTH area remain unclear. Here, we estimate the impacts of low carbon transition policies, including one BAU, six single and five combined scenarios, in electricity system in BTH area on installed power capacity, CO2 emissions, air quality and human health through 2060 based on open source energy modeling system and extend response surface model ERSM models. Results show that the total installed capacity under single and combined scenarios (except RE and Tech single scenarios) fluctuates around the BAU level of 310.5 GW in 2060. While all single and combined scenarios would generally achieve ‘carbon peak’ in BTH electricity system before 2030, only S4 (combining technological progress, renewable energy development and CCUS) and S5 (in additional to S4, including gas-fired power generation instead of coal-fired power generation) scenarios have the potential to realize carbon neutrality by 2060. The magnitude of reductions in air pollutant emissions and improvement in air quality in BTH area from the BAU level in 2060 under combined scenarios, especially S4 and S5, generally exceed that of six single scenarios. Importantly, S5 in 2060 contributes to about 8528 avoided premature mortalities in BTH area, which are more effective than any other scenarios. The results suggest that S5 is a promising low carbon transition policy to achieve environmental improvement and produce health benefits.