Spatiotemporal dynamics and forecasting of ecological security pattern under the consideration of protecting habitat: a case study of the Poyang Lake ecoregion

The continuous expansion and development of anthropogenic activities pose considerable threats to the habitats of myriad species. Therefore, exploring how to protect and optimize species’ habitats to achieve harmony between humans and nature is particularly important. As a paradise for wildlife, Poyang Lake is the habitat and breeding ground for birds, fish, and other aquatic organisms. In this study, adopting a multi-level perspective of ‘point-line-area’, we had an appliance for habitat conservation by constructing an ecological security pattern (ESP) in the Poyang Lake Ecoregion (PYLE). We produced land use and land cover from 2000 to 2040 using the random forest and cellular automata-Markov model. Combining morphological spatial pattern analysis, landscape pattern index, and Linkage Mapper, we constructed a long-term ESP in the PYLE considering habitat protection. The spatiotemporal dynamics of ESP were compared and analyzed. The results show that PYLE's rapid economic development led to extensive urban growth, encroaching on surrounding bare land, which could undermine local species’ survival. Based on PYLE's predicted ESP in 2040, we propose an optimized ‘one area, two zones, and multiple points’ scheme to prioritize habitat protection. This comprehensive study provides innovative ideas and novel insights for future research and policy formulation in habitat protection.