Prognostic Value of Quantitative Metrics From Positron Emission Tomography in Ischemic Heart Failure

The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic and clinical value of quantitative positron emission tomographic (PET) metrics in patients with ischemic heart failure. Although myocardial flow reserve (MFR) is a strong predictor of cardiac risk in patients without heart failure, it is unknown whether quantitative PET metrics improve risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure. The study included 254 patients referred for stress and rest myocardial perfusion imaging and viability testing using PET. Major adverse cardiac event(s) (MACE) consisted of death, resuscitated sudden cardiac death, heart transplantation, acute coronary syndrome, hospitalization for heart failure, and late revascularization. MACE occurred in 170 patients (67%) during a median follow-up of 3.3 years. In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model including multiple quantitative PET metrics, only MFR predicted MACE significantly (p = 0.013). Beyond age, symptom severity, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction or revascularization, 3-vessel disease, renal insufficiency, ejection fraction, as well as presence and burden of ischemia, scar, and hibernating myocardium, MFR was strongly associated with MACE (adjusted hazard ratio per increase in MFR by 1: 0.63; 95% confidence interval: 0.45 to 0.91). Incorporation of MFR into a risk assessment model incrementally improved the prediction of MACE (likelihood ratio chi-square test [16] = 48.61 vs. chi-square test [15] = 39.20; p = 0.002). In this retrospective analysis of a single-center cohort, quantitative PET metrics of myocardial blood flow all improved risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure. However, in a hypothesis-generating analysis, MFR appears modestly superior to the other metrics as a prognostic index.