Prediction of ablation zone disappearance after microwave ablation for the patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma using nomograph

Objectives To construct a prognostic nomogram to predict the ablation zone disappearance for patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) after microwave ablation (MWA). Materials and methods From April 2020 to April 2022, patients with PTMC who underwent MWA treatment were collected retrospectively. Ultrasound (US) or contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) was performed at 1 day, 1, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after MWA to observe the curative effect after ablation. The volume, volume reduction rate (VRR) and complete disappearance rate of the ablation zone at each time point were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the prognostic factors associated with the disappearance of the ablation zone after MWA, and the nomogram was established and validated. Results 72 patients with PTMCs underwent MWA were enrolled into this study. After MWA, no tumor progression (residual, recurrence or lymph node metastasis) and major postoperative complications occurred. The ablation zone in 28 (38.89%) patients did not completely disappear after MWA in the follow-up period. Three variables, including age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.216), calcification type (OR: 12.283), initial maximum diameter (OR: 2.051) were found to be independent prognostic factors predicting ablation zone status after MWA by multivariate analysis. The above variables and outcomes were visualized by nomogram (C-index=0.847). Conclusions MWA was a safe and effective treatment for PTMC. Older patients with macrocalcification and larger size PTMCs were more unlikely to obtain complete disappearance of ablation zones. Incomplete disappearance of ablation zone was not related to recurrence.