Evaluation of straw and agricultural policy impacts on the sustainability of the straw-based bioeconomy with an agent-based model

The use of straw as feedstock for the bioeconomy constitutes an important opportunity to fulfill the societal demand for biobased products and reduce the externalities incurred in the utilization of non-waste resources and alternative waste management methods. However, the insufficient supply of raw material and high reliance on government support have constrained further expansion of the industry. Additionally, the evaluation of policies is hindered by the complexity of bioeconomy systems, where multiple entities generate patterns that are difficult to analyze with conventional tools. We developed an agent-based model based on the Social-Ecological Systems framework and mixed methods to analyze the effect of various straw and agricultural policy scenarios on farmers, straw operators, and industrial plants, and their subsequent impacts on the socioeconomic and environmental outcomes of the straw-based industry. The results indicate that the combined use of straw retention and straw collection methods achieves optimal outcomes for sustainability, and that further adoption of straw collection in the study area can be facilitated by policies targeted towards farmer awareness, efficiency of operations, and market demand. The analysis also shows that policy strategies have a considerable influence over the distribution of economic value among stakeholders. Finally, this study demonstrates the usefulness of this modeling approach for the analysis of bioeconomy systems with multiple stakeholders, policy measures, and sustainability goals. Overall, these finding illustrate the implications of different policy and straw management approaches for the straw-based industry, and provide a useful guideline for the modeling of circular bioeconomy systems in China and elsewhere.