Effects of information-induced behavioral changes on brucellosis outbreak in Jilin province

Brucellosis, as a prevalent zoonosis caused by Brucella, primarily spreads in northern pastoral regions of China. The high levels of perceived risk about brucellosis before 2009 were largely suspected in Jilin province, as well as its effect in stemming the transmission of brucellosis. We will devise two epidemic models to investigate the effects of spontaneous changes in herder’s behavior awareness on the transmission of brucellosis. The global dynamics of these models will be thoroughly analyzed. The models are utilized to fit the data of newly infected cases of brucellosis in Jilin province from 2002–2020. The vital information-induced parameters of brucellosis have been estimated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The basic reproduction numbers are calculated as [Formula: see text] prior to 2009 and [Formula: see text] after 2009. Moreover, our findings indicate that a one-year delay in the implementation of pilot work in Jilin province by the government would result in a 50% increase in the peak number of newly infected brucellosis cases, surpassing 5000. On the contrary, if the government were to implement the pilot work in Jilin province one year ahead of schedule, there would be a 40% reduction in the peak number of newly infected brucellosis cases. Furthermore, the results suggest that enhancing the voluntary detection and protection rate is more effective than increasing voluntary rates. Information-induced detection and protection play a crucial role in curbing the spread of brucellosis. The increase in the reactivity factor of voluntary detection [Formula: see text] from 0.00128 to 0.0128 will result in a reduction of the incidence rate of human brucellosis cases to less than 1 per 100,000, enabling the achievement of the national control target seven years ahead of schedule. The insights shed herein may be conductive to suppress the spread of brucellosis in other areas.