Changing Burden, Risk Factors, and Projections of Low Back Pain in Adolescents and Young Adults

Study Design. Ecological study. Objective. To illustrate the spatiotemporal trends, attributable risk factors, and the projected burden of LBP among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 15-39 years. Summary of Background Data. Low back pain (LBP) poses a considerable challenge to individuals and society, and current epidemiological trends in AYAs experiencing LBP remain to be explored. Methods. Data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were utilized to examine the LBP burden among AYAs on global, regional, and national scales between 1990 and 2021. This ecological study also investigated global age-sex differences and the percentage of the burden linked to risk elements, while employing the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project worldwide trends until 2036. Results. Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide counts of incident, prevalent, and years lived with disability (YLDs) cases of LBP in AYAs rose. The calculated estimated annual percentage changes and relevant 95% confidence intervals indicated decreasing trends in age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized YLDs rate throughout the study period. The highest counts of prevalent, incident, and YLDs cases were found in regions with middle SDI in 2021, whereas high SDI areas experienced the maximum age-standardized rates. Females carried a heavier burden compared with males on a global scale. Occupational ergonomic factors contributed to the most significant percentage of YLDs globally in 2021, accounting for 26.93%. Predictions for the period 2022-2036 suggested a decline in the age-standardized rates of females worldwide, while the burden of females was predicted to remain higher than that of males. Conclusion. To tackle the current and possibly rising burden of LBP among AYAs, comprehensive and suitable interventions should be tailored to meet regional and sex disparities.