Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling

The world is confronting an escalating crisis of burgeoning photovoltaic (PV) waste1. However, the effectiveness and scalability of prevailing PV waste management approaches remain unclear owing to considerable heterogeneity across regions and over time. Here we develop a comprehensive framework to evaluate the economic and climate benefits of local versus outsourced recycling, covering mainstream technologies. Considering supply-side material constraints, global PV waste will reach 297–402 million tonnes by 2060, with middle-income regions such as China becoming major contributors after 2040. Notwithstanding anticipated technological advancements, the break-even point for global PV waste recycling remains more than a decade away. Combining region-specific recycling technologies with outsourced recycling strategies yields the maximal global net benefits, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 3.32 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent and generating cumulative net benefits of US$529.1–935.5 billion by 2060. However, outsourced recycling raises inequality concerns for low-income regions. Our results show that a well-designed declining-subsidy scheme effectively mitigates these inequalities, particularly in the early stages. We suggest that regionally adapted recycling strategies and international cooperation, with a focus on technology transfer and funding for recycling capacity in low-income regions, provide effective ways to achieve equitable and scalable PV waste circularity. Global photovoltaic waste will reach 297–402 million tonnes by 2060, and regionally adapted recycling strategies and international cooperation will be needed to provide equitable and scalable PV waste circularity.