Higher education expansion and attainment gaps in meritocratic beliefs

Abstract Over the past decades, higher education has expanded dramatically worldwide, yet how this transformation shapes public beliefs in meritocracy remains underexplored. This study examines how the expansion of higher education has shaped public beliefs in meritocracy across thirty Western countries. Drawing on four waves of repeated cross-national data from the International Social Survey Programme (1987, 1992, 2009, 2019, and ISSP), three-level mixed-effects models show that the gross tertiary enrollment ratio is positively associated with overall endorsement of meritocratic beliefs. Individuals with a college degree express stronger meritocratic beliefs than non-degree holders. Furthermore, the magnitude of the attainment gap increases with gross tertiary enrollment ratios, indicating that higher education expansion (HEE) reinforces belief divides. The findings suggest that HEE diffuses meritocratic norms while simultaneously stratifying their credibility across social groups. It further reveals that mass higher education generates a dual consciousness of meritocracy, combining endorsement and skepticism among individuals. The study highlights how expanding education systems shape the ideological foundations of inequality and underscores the paradoxical role of higher education as both a universalistic script and a positional resource.